Tool · Your assumptions
Funnel Scenario Library
The library holds three scenarios for each funnel step: cautious, middle and optimistic. The starting values are this site's model defaults with five points either side. They are assumptions for you to replace, not industry benchmarks.
| Funnel step | Cautious | Middle | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clicks to landing | |||
| Landing to registration | |||
| Registration to verification | |||
| Verification to FTD | |||
| FTD to retained | |||
| FTDs per 100,000 clicks |
What changes by market
- Great Britain: remote operators must verify name, address and date of birth before a customer can gamble, so verification sits before the first stake.
- Ontario: public marketing of bonuses and inducements is prohibited outside an operator's own site and consented direct marketing, which changes what a landing page can say.
- Australia: online casino games are prohibited services; only licensed wagering can be measured, and identification must be complete before an account is created, so registration and verification form one step.
- United States: legality and account rules are set state by state, so compare one state with itself before comparing two.
Read more in comparing funnels across markets.
What changes by device
- Search Console and Google Analytics both segment by device; compare like with like before blending.
- An app install moves part of the funnel out of web analytics; record where the web path ends.
- A player who switches devices can count as two users; treat device rates as directional.
Read more in mobile funnel measurement.
What changes by content type
- Guides, news and tools attract different intent; a low registration rate on an explainer may be normal.
- Group landing pages by intent before you compare rates, not by URL folder.
- Brand searches convert differently from topic searches; report them apart.
Read more in matching landing pages to search intent.
Why scenarios instead of benchmarks
This site has no operator data measured the same way across markets, so it does not publish benchmark ranges. A scenario table is the honest alternative: it shows what follows from each assumption and keeps the assumptions visible. When a new market or page group produces measured rates, replace the middle column with them and keep the others as a range for planning.
How to use it
- Replace the middle column with your measured step rates, from one market and one product.
- Set the cautious and optimistic columns to rates you can defend, for example the lowest and highest month of the past year.
- Read the first-time depositors per 100,000 clicks for each column.
- Open the middle scenario in the funnel explorer to see every stage, or download the table as CSV.
The market, device and content type tabs list what changes between groups, drawn from the site's research on market rules and device measurement.
Limits
Every number in the table is an assumption until you replace it. The calculation rounds each stage, like the explorer, and per 100,000 clicks is only a convenient scale for comparison.
Questions
Why are results shown per 100,000 clicks?
A fixed starting count makes the three columns comparable at a glance. Results scale with your own click count, rounded at each stage.
Can I save my scenarios?
Download them as CSV. The page does not store what you type, so a reload restores the defaults.
How wide should the cautious to optimistic range be?
Wide enough to cover rates you have actually seen. A range you cannot defend from your own data is guesswork with decimals.
Sources
Each source was read on October 27, 2026. How we choose sources is set out on the sources and reading list page.
- Gambling Commission, New age and identity verification rules: changes to the LCCP from Tuesday 7 May, published May 3, 2019, updated August 27, 2021.
- Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario, AGCO issues $110,000 in penalties to BetMGM Canada for offering cash to induce new gambling customers, March 26, 2025.
- Australian Communications and Media Authority, About the Interactive Gambling Act, no date shown.
- Australian Government, Department of Communications and the Arts, Protecting Australians from illegal online gambling services, August 2017.